Chinese out-of-control rocket will crash to Earth soon, experts predict

A Chinese rocket hurtling uncontrollably around the planet is likely to crash to Earth at the end of the month.

The 21-ton Long March 5B rocket stage was released as a part of the Wentian Space Station module, which was launched on Sunday and docked with the Tiangong Space Station.

Using data from the U.S. Space Force’s Space Surveillance Network, the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) has tracked the debris and predicts it will occur on July 31 – or 22 – around 7:30 a.m. Will re-enter the atmosphere at GMT. hours before or after that time.

The prediction will be updated as time goes on, and researchers stress that it is too early to say where the rocket will land.

“The general rule of thumb is that 20-40 percent of the mass of a large object will reach the ground, but the exact number depends on the design of the object. In this case, we would expect around five to nine metric tonnes”, he wrote.

“Generally, for the upper stage, we see that the small and medium tanks remain more or less intact, and the large engine components. The larger tanks of this main stage and the skin are likely to be separated. We use lighter objects like insulation The melting point of the materials used will make a difference in what’s left.”

This is the third time that China has launched a rocket to land uncontrollably on Earth. In May last year, a rocket carrying the central part of the Tianhe space station module fired so quickly around Earth that it was impossible to say where it would land. The debris orbits the Earth once every 90 minutes.

If the rocket had re-entered the atmosphere above a populated area, the result would have been similar to a small plane crash scattered over 100 miles. A year earlier, a similar prototype craft had arrived within 13 minutes of hitting New York City.

“As the number of satellites increases rapidly, the overall re-entry is also likely to increase in frequency. One of the best ways to control the growth of orbital debris is to put satellites out of orbit at the end of life.” This is often done through reentry”, says Cordes.

“In most of these cases, the satellites are small. Some are even designed to survive very low mass on the ground. Large objects like the CZ-5B rocket body do not burn easily. Controlled re-entry is a common practice for large objects such as rockets – using their engines to target a different area of the ocean for re-entry, greatly reducing the risk to people. 



PUKmedia / AFP